The Premier League STILL lags behind Serie A and the Bundesliga in the race for a fifth Champions League spot… but English clubs in Europe have a higher probability to secure an extra place than their German counterparts
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The Premier League STILL lags behind Serie A and the Bundesliga in the race for a fifth Champions League spot… but English clubs in Europe have a higher probability to secure an extra place than their German counterparts

Apr 1, 2024

The Premier League is still third in the race for a fifth Champions League spot – but English clubs have a higher possible ceiling than German ones in UEFA’s rankings. 

English clubs are on track to miss out on another place at Europe’s top table behind Serie A and the Bundesliga

A lot hinges on tonight’s Europa League and Europa Conference League matches – particularly West Ham‘s match against Freiburg, with David Moyes‘ team down 1-0 from the first leg. 

The extra places – called the ‘European Performance spots’ – are awarded to the two nations that perform best in Europe this season. Italy and Germany occupy those spots as it stands. 

The Premier League is still miles ahead on average over the last five seasons, which determines how many European spots they get, but that has no bearing on the special ‘additional’ places. 

Premier League clubs have a higher possible ceiling than the Bundesliga's in Europe this season - but are still behind the German league as it stands

Premier League clubs have a higher possible ceiling than the Bundesliga’s in Europe this season – but are still behind the German league as it stands 

Six English clubs remain in European competitions while just four German clubs are left

Six English clubs remain in European competitions while just four German clubs are left

UEFA COEFFICIENT TABLES

The race for an extra spot as it stands

 1) Italy – 16.571

2) Germany – 15.928 

3) England – 15.000

4) France – 14.416

5) Spain – 14.187 

6) Czechia – 13.000

 The highest possible score 

 1) Italy – 23.713

2) England – 23.625

3) Czechia – 23.500 

4) Germany – 23.071

5) France – 21.250

6) Spain – 19.437 

Remember, these averages are for this season alone and will be used to decide the two additional ‘European Performance spots’. The numbers are calculated by taking all the coefficient points scored by the clubs from a nation in Europe this season and dividing that total by the number of teams from that country competing.

Serie A leads the way this season with 16.571 points on average per club, with a maximum possible ceiling of 23.713 if their remaining teams excel. 

All of their sides competing in Europe made it out of the group stages, but losing Inter Milan, Napoli, and Lazio in the last 16 of the Champions League is a major blow to them. 

AC Milan, Roma, and Atalanta all remain in the Europa League, with the first two in a strong position to progress, while Fiorentina are still in the Europa Conference League.  

The Bundesliga sits second with 15.928 points per club, with a maximum possible ceiling of 23.071. 

Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund have both progressed to the last eight of the Champions League and they still have Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg in the Europa League.

The Premier League is third with a score of 15 points per club – but our ceiling is higher than the Bundesliga, with a potential of 23.625. 

Arsenal and Manchester City reaching the quarter-finals of the Champions League has helped a lot, but England’s chances were hampered by Manchester United and Newcastle finishing bottom of their groups. 

That’s why tonight is so important – especially for fans of Tottenham and Aston Villa, the two sides locked in the race for fourth and fifth. 

Aston Villa and Spurs are battling for the top four. Whoever misses out will be hoping that England gets a fifth place

Aston Villa and Spurs are battling for the top four. Whoever misses out will be hoping that England gets a fifth place 

Brighton's hopes of progressing are shot after a 4-0 defeat away at Roma, but they can still score points for England by picking up a win or draw

Brighton’s hopes of progressing are shot after a 4-0 defeat away at Roma, but they can still score points for England by picking up a win or draw 

Liverpool are on course to progress to the last eight of the Europa League as they host Sparta Prague tonight and are 5-1 up on aggregate. 

However, Brighton lost 4-0 at Roma and West Ham lost 1-0 at Freiburg, meaning both could exit the competition tonight, with the Seagulls almost bound to crash out. 

Meanwhile, Aston Villa are bringing a 0-0 draw with Ajax back to the Midlands and the Premier League will be hoping they can make it through for a nice boost in points. 

Bizarrely, Czechia have the third-highest possible score due to Sparta Prague and Slavia Prague being left in the Europa League, and Viktoria Plzen still standing in the Europa Conference League. 

Every win by a club in any competition is worth two points, while a draw is worth one point. 

Teams that make the last 16 of the Champions League get five points as a bonus treat, and then one more point for each further round they progress. 

Clubs in the Europa League get one bonus point for each round from the last 16. 

Meanwhile, in the Conference League, there is a bonus point available for making it to the semi-final and final. 

Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich give Germany hope of scoring big coefficient points in the Champions League

Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich give Germany hope of scoring big coefficient points in the Champions League

Czech clubs actually have a higher ceiling than German ones in Europe this campaign but face a difficult test to qualify

Czech clubs actually have a higher ceiling than German ones in Europe this campaign but face a difficult test to qualify 

Four extra places are on offer for next season’s Champions League, which will be expanded to 36 teams from the current 32.

Two extra places will be decided by the ‘European Performance spots’.

One of the additional places will go to the club who finish third in the league ranked fifth by UEFA’s coefficient, with another being awarded to a domestic champion, increasing the clubs qualifying through the ‘Champions Path’ from four to five. 

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