College football betting picks: NCAAF week 11 rundown and odds

College football betting picks: NCAAF week 11 rundown and odds

Nov 10, 2023

The second week of the College Football Playoff Rankings have arrived with the top four remaining from the opening rankings.

Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State continue to have the inside track on making the College Football Playoffs with the season winding down.

There was some belief that Georgia might jump Ohio State for the number one spot based on their quality win over Missouri, but the CFP Selection Committee has not been convinced just yet. Georgia will also be facing off with Ole Miss this week to mark their toughest matchup of the season to date and another chance to jump the rankings.

On the outside looking in for these four playoff slots stands undefeated Washington and Oregon- whose lone loss was at the hands of the Huskies. Even still, the debate over best team versus best resume continues as Georgia remains the top team in the country according to the AP poll.

Michigan sits at number two in this poll with Ohio State in 3rd and the rest of the top eight remaining the same. In both rankings, Texas sits at Number 7 and Alabama at Number 8. The race to the playoffs is in full swing with some of the top teams buckling up for massive tests in the Week 11 slate.

There is value in the college football betting boards both in these matchups and around the rest of the games as well. Here is a look at some of the top matchups of the weekend and where the best betting value can be found. 

🏅 Win odds overview for this week’s matchups

  • -10 Penn State (+170 ML) vs 3 Michigan (-5) | DraftKings
  • -Kentucky (+320 ML) vs 8 Alabama (-10.5) | BetRivers
  • -Texas Tech (+165 ML) vs 16 Kansas (-3.5) | BetMGM
  • -Colorado (+330 ML) vs 21 Arizona (-10.5) | DraftKings
  • -Miami (+475 ML) vs 4 Florida State (-14.5) | BetMGM
  • -18 Utah (+295 ML) vs 5 Washington (-9.5) | DraftKings
  • -14 Missouri (-107 ML) vs 13 Tennessee (-1) | BetRivers
  • -UCF (+115 ML) vs 15 Oklahoma State (-2.5) | BetMGM
  • -9 Ole Miss (+360 ML) vs 2 Georgia (-10.5) | DraftKings
  • -USC (+575 ML) vs 6 Oregon (-15) | Betway

NCAAF weekly predictions

There are four matchups between teams within the Top 25 this week with some notable stakes on the line. Georgia is feeling the pressure of not being regarded as the consensus top team in the country for the first time in the better part of three years.

Their matchup against an 8-1 Ole Miss team headlined by QB Jaxson Dart provides them a great opportunity to make a statement. In addition, Michigan will be facing off against Penn State with both teams still having their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

While Penn State currently sits at 10th in the College Football Playoff rankings, their lone blemish was a 20-12 loss at the hands of Ohio State. If they can produce the +170 upset on the moneyline and take down Michigan, it could shake things up in the rankings in a major way. 5th-ranked Washington also remains lurking outside the top four and will be facing off with Utah this week with a chance to pick up another significant win.

With another ranked matchup next week against Oregon State don’t close the door on their playoff hopes completely either. Lastly, Tennessee and Missouri will face off as Mizzou looks to bounce back following their 30-21 loss at the hands of Georgia last week. 
Despite not ranking number one in either of the notable polls, Michigan remains the betting favorite to win the National Championship.

Their +220 odds sit in front of Georgia at +260 even amid all the off-field distractions that have been brought on by accused sign stealing from a member of the coaching staff. There is a notable drop-off with Florida State holding the next-highest title odds at +600 and Ohio State trailing them at +700.

Alabama has been one of the biggest movers of late and has the fifth-best odds to win the championship at +800. Oregon sits at +1000 and Washington at +1200 to round out the top seven.

While Washington may need some help from the teams ahead of them to officially secure a spot in the playoffs, QB Michael Penix Jr has once again taken the lead in the Heisman Trophy race.

He sits at +150 odds on DraftKings Sportsbooks with Oregon QB Bo Nix right behind him at +200. After leading the pack last week, Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy has slipped to being tied for the 3rd best Heisman odds with Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis at +850.

The home stretch of the season still leaves plenty to prove and with no room for error from here on out.

Week 11 picks for the NCCAF


Week 11 picks for the NCCAF

Week 11 college football betting picks

With plenty on the line this week, here is a look at the best value on the betting slate and a breakdown of each matchup.

✔️ Alabama vs. Kentucky: Alabama -10.5 (-113) with BetRivers

  • Date and time: Saturday, November 11th, 12:00 PM EST
  • Location: Lexington, Kentucky
  • TV/Stream: ESPN

Don’t look now but Alabama is looking like Alabama again. After a slow start to the year highlighted by a loss to Texas and the decision to bench quarterback Jalen Milroe, the Crimson Tide look to be back on track.

Leading into this matchup they have won seven consecutive games and most recently defeated Tennessee and LSU by 14 points each. Milroe remains as dangerous with his legs as ever, as highlighted by his 155 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns against LSU last week, but he has looked more comfortable as a passer in recent games.

In the matchup against LSU, Alabama tallied 507 yards of offense and converted on 11 of 14 third downs without turning the ball over. The Crimson Tide have also looked dominant defensively holding opponents to just 17.8 points per game this season which ranks 18th in the country. 

On the other side, Kentucky enters with a 6-3 record with their most notable win coming over Florida. Their losses have come at the hands of Georgia, Tennessee, and Missouri and they have allowed an average of 40.7 points in these matchups.

The Wildcats also failed to surpass 200 yards of offense against Georgia and 300 yards against Missouri. Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary was sacked 8 combined times against Georgia and Missouri which is noteworthy considering this Alabama defense ranks top 15 in the country with 29 sacks on the year.

Leary also has the lowest completion percentage under pressure among the 16 qualifying SEC quarterbacks. While this is not a program where it is expected for them to roll over, Kentucky is out of the SEC race and far removed from the playoff picture while Alabama has plenty still to play for. 

This is a matchup in which Alabama is a notch above Kentucky in terms of quality and will look to prove it. They are playing their best football at the right time and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Expect Alabama’s dominant defensive line to cause issues for Kentucky and for it to interrupt their offensive flow while Jalen Milroe keeps the offense humming.

With their final two games of the regular season set to be against Chattanooga and Auburn, the Crimson Tide could use a commanding victory, and don’t expect Nick Saban to let this opportunity slip through his fingers. You can wager on Alabama to cover to the 10.5 spread at -113 odds on BetRivers.

🏈 Bet on Alabama to cover the 10.5 spread at -113 with BetRivers 🏈

✔️ Georgia vs. Ole Miss: Over 58 (-110) at BetRivers

  • Date and time: Saturday, November 11th, 7:00 PM EST
  • Location: Athens, Georgia
  • TV/Stream: ESPN

While 59 is a sky-high total for an SEC game, this pair of dynamic offenses is ready to meet the challenge. Georgia has eclipsed 43 or more points five times this year and is averaging 40 points over their past four games.

On the season they are 10th in scoring at 39.3 points per game as Carson Beck has answered all questions about if he could keep the offense at an elite level. On the season Beck has completed 72.2% of his passes for 2716 yards, tallying 16 touchdowns and only tossing four interceptions.

Georgia has also shown more trust in Beck in recent weeks and gradually converted the offense into a pass-heavy attack after leaning on the running game early on in the year. Beck has tallied 300 or more passing yards in four of the team’s last six matchups. 

Ole Miss enters this matchup with an 8-1 record and plenty of reasons for optimism themselves. Lane Kiffin’s offense ranks 14th in the country in scoring by averaging 38.8 points per game and they have eclipsed 33 or more points in six of their nine games.

They are led by quarterback Jaxson Dart who has completed 65.6% of his passes for 2467 yards and 16 touchdowns while only throwing four interceptions. Dart also has added 334 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground this season.

While this biggest question will be if the Rebels can produce against Georgia’s fearsome defense, expect Dart’s dual-threat ability to cause some issues.

Ole Miss also possesses a balanced rushing game led by Quinshon Judkins which is effective in opening up the pass. Kiffin has proven to not be afraid to take chances if the game script dictates it so expect him to be prepared for a shootout. 

There is little doubt that Georgia’s offense will be able to put up points against this Ole Miss defense. The bigger question will be if Ole Miss is up to the challenge to keep pace and expect them to deliver.

The only game in which the Rebels have struggled to score this season was against Alabama. However, this was just the fourth game of the season and Ole Miss has looked much more dominant offensively since this point.

Expect the Rebels to give a hard fight and keep within striking distance before Georgia puts the game away in the second half.

Regardless, count on there to be plenty of points and for Georgia to score 40+ points themselves while Ole Miss makes up the difference. You can wager on the over of 58 points on BetRivers at -110 odds.

🏈 Bet on a over 58 points at -110 with BetRivers 🏈

✔️ Florida State vs. Miami: Florida State -14 (-110) at BetMGM

  • Date and time: Saturday, November 11th, 3:30 PM EST
  • Location: Tallahassee, Florida
  • TV/Stream: ABC

In a cross-state rivalry matchup taking place at Florida State, there is plenty to prove for both sides. Florida State is hanging onto the inside track for the final playoff spot but Washington and Oregon are lurking over their shoulders.

A poor performance could put them on the outside looking in despite their 9-0 current record. Miami also cannot afford to let their foot off the gas as they enter this matchup with a 6-3 record and have not taken the program leap it was hoped this season. This is especially the case as the Hurricanes suffered a frustrating 20-6 loss at the hands of NC State last week in which they turned the ball over four times and converted just 4 of their 15 third down attempts.

Miami had the ball for over 35 minutes of game time but was only able to muster up a pair of field goals. The seat is beginning to warm for head coach Mario Cristobal as he has failed to reach expectations in his second season with the program. 

Unfortunately, Miami has a difficult task against a Florida State football team which is playing at an extremely high level. They have won their past five games by an average of 24 points. On the season, the Seminoles are averaging 39.6 points per game which ranks 9th in the country while allowing just 17.0 points per game which is the 16th best rate.

Florida State also put forth a dominant 45-3 victory over Miami last year in which they outgained them 454-188 in total yards. While the Miami defense should make life a little more difficult this year, there is still a significant talent gap between these two teams. 

Florida State’s defense also can be counted on to cause some issues for Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Since week five, the Seminoles have been the top team nationally in pass success rate allowed. They also are top five in predicted points added per pass attempt and top 20 in pass explosiveness allowed. Look for them to limit Miami’s offense through the air and for Florida State to build a lead early in this matchup.

Miami has made some confusing decisions throughout the season and is too sporadic of a team to be trusted in a matchup they must be just about perfect to win. Instead, expect Florida State to add another convincing victory to their resume as the season winds down.

Count on them to turn this into a blowout and cover the 14-point spread which you can take advantage of on Betway Sportsbook.

🏈 Bet on Florida State -14 at -110 with BetMGM 🏈

College football betting weekly highlights

  • Utah’s QB Cam Rising is out for the season as he recovers from a torn ACL
  • Iowa QB Cade McNamara is out for the season with a torn ACL
  • LSU QB Jayden Daniels is questionable vs Florida with a concussion
  • Duke QB Riley Leonard is doubtful with a toe injury vs UNC. He also suffered a toe injury on the opposite foot of the high ankle sprain which kept him out earlier this season
  • Home teams are 428-234 this year straight up (64.7%)
  • Away teams are 234-428 this year straight up (35.3%)
  • Home teams are 310-334-18 against the spread this season (48.1%)
  • Away teams are 334-310-18 against the spread this season (51.9%)
  • Favorites are 314-330-18 against the spread this season (48.8%)
  • Underdogs are 330-314-18 against the spread this season (51.2%)
  • Home favorites are 210-230-12 against the spread this season (47.7%)
  • Away favorites are 104-100-6 against the spread this season (51.0%)
  • Home underdogs are 100-104-6 against the spread this season (49.0%)
  • Overs are 331-318 on the season (51.0%)

🏈 Best college football betting sites

  • BetMGM (Available in: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY)
  • DraftKings (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, and WV)
  • BetRivers (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY)
  • Desert Diamond (Available in: AZ)
  • Betway (Available in: IA)

Big football fan? Check out the best NFL betting sites for the season!

About the author

Sean Barnard

Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.

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